FIRE 基础 · LEVEL 3
你的 FIRE 计划能否撑过一个糟糕的开始？
比较正常情景、早期市场下跌和收入中断，看看什么能给计划留下更多恢复空间。
YOUR FIRE PLAN
Test the plan before life tests it.
Use today's dollars. This is a simplified planning illustration, not investment or tax advice.
THE WEAKEST LINK IN YOUR PLAN
Early market dropWithout changes, funds run out after about 31.5 years.NormalResilient35+ years7% nominal return, 2% annual spending inflation and $500/month flexible income.
Market dropTight31.5 years-30% for 1 year, then 7% nominal return while spending rises 2%/year.
Income pauseResilient35+ years$500/month paused for 2 years; costs +15% for 3 years.
THREE STRESS PATHS
What happens to available capital?
Each path includes your planned withdrawals. The reserve is used only during a stressed period.
NormalMarket dropIncome pause
IF THE WEAKEST CASE HAPPENSAbout $175 / month of extra income closes the 35-year gap.
THE STRONGEST NEXT LEVERReduce necessary spending by 15%3.5 more years in the weakest case, before considering other changes.
The model uses your expected return after inflation. It does not model taxes, fees, changing asset allocation, pensions, healthcare shocks or every market path—use it to ask better questions, not to certify a plan.
如何理解
韧性不只是一个提取率。
市场、成本与收入不会轮流发生变化。这个工具用刻意简化的压力情景，说明灵活支出、现金缓冲和赚取部分收入的能力，为什么和投资组合本身同样重要。
证据摘要
这个工具建立在什么基础上？
FIRE 韧性压力测试. 用早期市场下跌、成本上升与灵活收入中断来测试一个简化 FIRE 计划。
这是对实现依据的公开说明，并非专业认证。假设与边界比一个背书标志更重要。 更正原则.
- 模型版本
- 1.0
- 最近复核
- 证据基础
- 使用你的输入构建透明规划情景
- 数据状态
- 无实时数据；结果只随你的输入变化
- 决策敏感度
- 财务假设会显著影响结果
引用此工具
让读者可以回到同一个版本。
复制的引用包含工具名称、模型版本、复核日期与稳定网址。引用不代表 Rich2Fire 对第三方内容的认可。
Rich2Fire. (2026). FIRE 韧性压力测试 (model version 1.0, reviewed 2026-10-10). https://rich2fire.com/zh/tools/fire-resilience-stress-test