Start with credible inputs
Compare portfolios over the same dates and understand the asset mix behind each label. Do not compare metrics calculated from different periods as if they were equivalent.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENT · LEVEL 2
Do not ask only
which line ended highest.
Use one shared historical window to compare five portfolio ideas, then look beyond return at the risk and drawdown you would have had to live through.
ONE BACKTEST, FIVE WAYS TO READ IT
A portfolio is easier to hold when you know its bad days.
Compare five simple portfolio proxies and choose how often to rebalance. Return is only the first column; volatility, Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown describe the ride.
Loading the historical proxy series…
HOW TO USE THIS
A backtest is a question,
not a verdict.
A high return is useful only if its volatility and drawdowns are still compatible with your life, your cash buffer and your behaviour during bad markets. These metrics cannot choose for you; they can make the bargain visible before a difficult year forces you to feel it.
PORTFOLIO BACKTEST COMPARISON EXPLAINED
Which portfolio had the best balance of return, volatility and drawdown?
The best historical return and the most livable portfolio are not always the same. This backtest compares common allocations over one shared period so return can be read beside volatility, Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown.
How to interpret the calculator result
Read the result in context
Use CAGR for growth, volatility for year-to-year variation, Sharpe ratio for return relative to volatility and maximum drawdown for the deepest historical fall.
Turn it into a decision
Choose the trade-off you could continue holding through a bad period, then test your own allocation in the custom backtest.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Questions about this portfolio backtest comparison.
What is the most important backtest metric?
No single metric is sufficient. Return matters, but drawdown and volatility help show whether the path was behaviourally and financially survivable.
Does the best historical portfolio stay best?
No. Backtests describe a selected past period. Future returns, correlations, inflation and market leadership can differ.
MODEL & DATA CARD
Inspect the calculation before trusting the result.
What this tool answersCompares five published portfolio recipes over one shared historical window. It measures what happened in the embedded proxy series; it does not estimate what will happen next.
Calculation method
Compounds monthly asset returns from a $10,000 starting value. Monthly or annual rebalancing restores target weights; no rebalancing lets weights drift. CAGR is the compounded end-to-end return, volatility is monthly standard deviation × √12, Sharpe uses a 0% risk-free rate, and maximum drawdown is the deepest monthly peak-to-trough fall.
Data lineage
Fixed, embedded monthly adjusted-close proxy returns for SPY, IEF, TLT, GLD, DBC, SHY and VBR. The snapshot was prepared in September 2026, ends in August 2026, and the shared comparison begins in February 2007. The page makes no live market-data request.
Visible checks
Changing only the rebalancing setting recalculates every monthly path from the same source observations. All portfolios use the same dates and metric definitions, so the comparison is internally consistent.
Important omissions
ETF proxies are not the underlying indexes and have different launch dates. Results omit fund expenses, tax, spreads, commissions, currency effects and a non-zero risk-free rate. Monthly observations hide intramonth losses; one historical window cannot establish a future return distribution.
Primary references and data origin
External sources explain the data or method; they do not endorse Rich2Fire or its outputs.
EVIDENCE SNAPSHOT
What this tool is built on.
Portfolio Backtest. Compares five published portfolio recipes over one shared historical window using return, volatility, Sharpe ratio and drawdown.
This is implementation evidence, not professional certification. Assumptions and limits matter more than a badge. Correction policy.
- Model version
- 1.0
- Last reviewed
- Evidence basis
- Fixed historical market-proxy series
- Data status
- Fixed market series through August 2026
- Decision sensitivity
- Financial assumptions matter
CITE THIS TOOL
Let readers return to the same version.
This citation includes the tool name, model version, review date and stable URL. Citation does not imply Rich2Fire endorses third-party content.
Rich2Fire. (2026). Portfolio Backtest (model version 1.0, reviewed 2026-10-10). https://rich2fire.com/tools/portfolio-trade-off-backtest